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I thought I'd explain my understanding of how the qualification works and our possible seeding for the both the qualification and (dare we dream) possible group stages.
First of all it seems as though last year UEFA changed the qualification process and that is why 3rd place no longer needs to qualify and 4th place only requires one qualifying match. However, the changes have a direct impact on the quality of the opposition we're likely to meet. One of the changes means that qualifying is split into two groups, domestic champions and non champions. We obviously fall into the non champions group and enter a qualifying pot with 14 other teams. These 15 teams are the lowest placed CL qualifiers from the top 15 leagues in Europe.
The teams from the top 5 leagues receive a bye into the playoff round and look likely to be Spurs, Sevilla, Sampdoria, Werder Bremen and Lyon. The other 10 teams will be drawn against each other in a seeded draw and the likely outcome will be:
Seeded
CSKA Moscow
Ajax
Olympiakos
Basel
Dynamo Kiev
Non seeded
Braga
Celtic
Club Bruges
Unirea
Bursaspor
The 5 winners of these ties would then join the 5 previously mentioned teams and a seeded draw would again take place. Now given that only Sevilla, Lyon, Werder Bremen and CSKA Moscow would have higher coefficients than Spurs, it should guarantee us a place in the seeded pot and therefore being drawn against one of Ajax, Olympiakos, Basel, Dynamo Kiev, Braga, Celtic, Club Bruges, Sampdoria, Unirea or Bursaspor (you can remove Ajax from this list of CSKA Moscow lose their first qualifier). Now most of those look winnable but there is the possibility of some tricky ties, most notably Martin Jol’s Ajax or even Sampdoria who have had a very good season in Italy.
Should we take our chance and grace the Champions League proper for the first time (in it’s current guise) we are likely to be seeded in the 3rd pot and will come up against 1 team from each of the 2 following pots (again, this is not final but is likely given the current standings and remaining fixtures) and one other from a 4th seed pot.
1st Seed Pot
Barcelona
Manchester United
Chelsea
Ars*nal
Bayern Munich
Sevilla
AC Milan
Internazionale
2nd Seed Pot
Lyon
Werder Bremen
Real Madrid
Roma
Shakhtar Donetsk
Benfica
Valencia
CSKA Moscow
Again, with a friendly draw, possibly avoiding Real Madrid and Lyon from the 2nd pot we stand a good chance of qualifying through the group stages.
I’ll leave it here and would love to get some feedback and opinions on you guys. Sorry for the long first post, hopefully it will prove interesting reading to you.
First of all it seems as though last year UEFA changed the qualification process and that is why 3rd place no longer needs to qualify and 4th place only requires one qualifying match. However, the changes have a direct impact on the quality of the opposition we're likely to meet. One of the changes means that qualifying is split into two groups, domestic champions and non champions. We obviously fall into the non champions group and enter a qualifying pot with 14 other teams. These 15 teams are the lowest placed CL qualifiers from the top 15 leagues in Europe.
The teams from the top 5 leagues receive a bye into the playoff round and look likely to be Spurs, Sevilla, Sampdoria, Werder Bremen and Lyon. The other 10 teams will be drawn against each other in a seeded draw and the likely outcome will be:
Seeded
CSKA Moscow
Ajax
Olympiakos
Basel
Dynamo Kiev
Non seeded
Braga
Celtic
Club Bruges
Unirea
Bursaspor
The 5 winners of these ties would then join the 5 previously mentioned teams and a seeded draw would again take place. Now given that only Sevilla, Lyon, Werder Bremen and CSKA Moscow would have higher coefficients than Spurs, it should guarantee us a place in the seeded pot and therefore being drawn against one of Ajax, Olympiakos, Basel, Dynamo Kiev, Braga, Celtic, Club Bruges, Sampdoria, Unirea or Bursaspor (you can remove Ajax from this list of CSKA Moscow lose their first qualifier). Now most of those look winnable but there is the possibility of some tricky ties, most notably Martin Jol’s Ajax or even Sampdoria who have had a very good season in Italy.
Should we take our chance and grace the Champions League proper for the first time (in it’s current guise) we are likely to be seeded in the 3rd pot and will come up against 1 team from each of the 2 following pots (again, this is not final but is likely given the current standings and remaining fixtures) and one other from a 4th seed pot.
1st Seed Pot
Barcelona
Manchester United
Chelsea
Ars*nal
Bayern Munich
Sevilla
AC Milan
Internazionale
2nd Seed Pot
Lyon
Werder Bremen
Real Madrid
Roma
Shakhtar Donetsk
Benfica
Valencia
CSKA Moscow
Again, with a friendly draw, possibly avoiding Real Madrid and Lyon from the 2nd pot we stand a good chance of qualifying through the group stages.
I’ll leave it here and would love to get some feedback and opinions on you guys. Sorry for the long first post, hopefully it will prove interesting reading to you.
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